Yesterday I campaigned in Beckenham. I had lunch in the Rascasse with friends and met lots of people, including Shirley Smith who appears with me in the attached photograph.
As I go around I am constantly asked how I think the election will turn out and who will win it. Obviously I reply that the country urgently requires a majority Conservative Government and I very much hope that happens. But the omens for a clear and absolute Tory victory are hardly good - going on opinion polls. I fervently hope we win by an outright majority but the pundits almost totally suggest that we are most likely to have to have a coalition government of some sort or other once again.
Yet, if just half the supporters of UKIP suggested by polls were to return to the Conservative fold we would have a clear majority in the country on 7th May. With an unhindered (by coalition) Conservative Government we would definitely be able to have that referendum on Europe that so many UKIP supporters want. They are not alone; I do too and have always voted that way in the House of Commons. Only a Conservative Government unfettered by coalition will ensure a European Referendum and that will happen by the end of 2017 if we form the next government. So I very much hope that many of our natural supporters - currently supporting UKIP - will see this and give us back their vote when they give it on 7th May.
Scotland matters in this election too; more than ever before. The polls again suggest that the Scottish Nationalists will form the third largest party at Westminster from 7th May. I would be extremely had any influence on the next Government. It is absolutely sure that we Conservatives will have nothing to do with the SNP but I wonder about the Labour Party? What price would the Scottish Nationalists exact to support a Labour Government? On television last night Nicola Sturgeon stated explicitly that the SNP would be willing to put Ed Miliband into Downing Street – even if they were not the largest party at Westminster. She even outlined an appalling ‘shopping list’ with which she would hold Ed Miliband to ransom. I fear we in England would pay heavily if such a deal occurred.