Sadly, Bromley Borough now has 815 people confirmed as having Coronavirus which is up 30 folk over the last 24 hours. Across the country 861 more people have died in the last day making our total national death rate 13,729 which is a significant increase on the day before. In addition, 103,093 British people have now tested positive for COVID-19 – up 4,618 in 24 hours.
There was no surprise therefore, last night at 5pm, when Dominic Raab, the First Secretary of State, confirmed that we will remain locked down for three more weeks – until at least Thursday 7 May. He stated although there had been encouraging signs that the rate of infection had significantly reduced, it was still too early to break away from any lockdown measures. He went on that it was too dangerous for both public health and the economy as it might allow a second wave of coronavirus infections.
I suppose the Government has been goaded into opening up on an exit strategy by various people demanding one (not me though). But I feel to do so too early is daft and could distract the public from struct adherence to current social distancing measures and the lockdown. So, Raab did not do it.
Instead Raab outlined five criteria which must be satisfied before there could be any easing of lockdown measures.
• First, there must be clear evidence that the NHS could cope across the UK and, as I have previously written, that is or could be quite close.
• Second, there has to be a sustained fall in daily death rates. That clearly has not happened yet although there is some evidence that we might have reached what is called a plateau. The death rate seems to be averaging at between 700-850 poor souls a day. A week or so ago the numbers dying were doubling every few days. They are not doing so anymore.
• Third, that there be evidence that the rate of infection is decreasing. As the experts say there are green shoots here and the gradient of infections seems to be levelling off. Actually, this situation seems to be getting better by the day.
• Fourth, that there is confidence that supplies of testing and PPE are able to meet demand. We seem to be close on PPE but we still have a way to go with regard to testing. I hope we do reach 100,000 tested in a day by the end of the month but that is some ask.
• Fifth, that there is no risk of a second peak of infections. This is probably the thorniest decision to make. Other countries have seen COVID-19 come back and bite again. We cannot have that but this will be a tricky call to make.
Based on my own limited research here in Shortlands I reckon we should be able to achieve the first three conditions by 7 May. But I doubt very much whether we will be able to satisfy the last two criteria by then.
I noticed that Dominic Raab used the word ‘adjusting’ when referring to a lockdown exit timeline. To me that suggests that the Government does not expect things to be business as normal in the short term. To me it implies we may have to withdraw from lockdown slowly and carefully checking as we do. Maybe it will be thinking in terms of a phased withdrawal from our house arrest. For instance, in an initial phase we could be allowed more freedom to linger in parks or perhaps visit re-opened garden and DIY centres. But that is probably a hopeful speculation on my part as I dearly need some plants and also wood from Wickes to mend something in the garden!
Interestingly yesterday’s YouGov poll showed that above 90 per cent of the public supported extending the lockdown period with 67 per cent strongly doing so. But public opinion is fickle and it can also turn around fast. It seems to me that by 7 May we will need to take some lockdown pressure off although we will have to do so very carefully.
By that time the Prime Minister should just about be back in Number 10, firing on all four cylinders. He has certainly suffered by example but we really need his effusive and optimistic leadership again. His full recovery will be excellent tonic for national morale. It certainly will be for mine.