A month or so ago I seem to recall the Chief Scientific Officer announcing that we would be ‘doing well’ if we came out of the Coronavirus Crisis with less than 20,000 deaths. Yesterday that grim milestone was reached as it was announced that our death toll has reached 20,319 with another 813 people dying in the previous 24 hours. Those dark figures are just for hospital deaths and do not include fellow citizens who have died in care homes.
On the slightly less tragic side we have also been told both that we are at the so-called plateau and at the peak of the death rate. Some plateau, some peak! The plateau seems very long and the peak seems to be a false summit. But the scientific and medical experts are positive that we will start to come out of it very soon. I don’t know myself but just hope they are right.
Yet, we cannot hold off the move to normalise life for much longer. There is increasing dissatisfaction with being cooped up in our homes with such serious restrictions on outside life. Already I see more people out, greater numbers lying around in the parks and increasing cars and vehicles on the road in front of my house. The dam of public support creating isolation may be cracking. It seems to me that restrictions will have to be lightened very soon or that barrier of self-restraint will burst.
There has also been growing concern over the extent of the economic impact of the lockdown if we are not allowed to return to work. In March UK retail sales fell by the most on record, according to Office for National Statistics. Clothing sales saw the biggest slump by over a third, and overall sales volumes plunged by 5.1 per cent. To be honest I thought the figures would be worse than that but maybe, as in my own house, some people have simply switched to buying more on-line.
It is vital that we get people back to work and it is on this I wish to dwell for the rest of my post today.
I know the Treasury is planning how to restart the economy. It also makes sense that Alok Sharma, the Business Secretary, has been ordered to devise return to work plans for each sector of the economy too. Apparently, he holds daily virtual meetings with various business leaders working out how their workers in offices, factories and on construction sites can work within revised social distancing rules.
According to the Daily Mail, McDonald's, British Steel and construction firm Persimmon are amongst the first high-profile companies to announce their intention to reopen in May. By then the daily number of new cases of coronavirus should be in the low thousands. That having been said, some building works, much to the irritation of many constituents, have never closed locally. I have had a lot of complaints about this as, from what I hear, social distancing rules have often been ignored by builders.
Car manufacturers Nissan, Aston Martin and Jaguar Land Rover amongst others have also said they will reopen their factories with strict safety measures in place. BMW, Toyota, JCB and Caterpillar have also been involved in Government talks, with officials suggesting workers wear Perspex shields on production lines as their own form of personal protective equipment.
I gather that, for their part, all Government departments are drafting rules for re-opening businesses which will include social distancing measures, lots of hand sanitisers as well as closed communal areas where people can meet. Obviously, those rules will stipulate that anyone showing signs of Coronavirus would have to go home immediately.
In Parliament Mr Speaker, Sir Lindsay Hoyle and his team are working out how the House of Commons can sit safely too. We are strongly discouraged for going there at the moment and only 50 people, with very good reason to be present, are allowed in the Chamber. The House of Lords remains in compete lockdown. Apparently, MPs are designated as key workers and Parliamentary Authorities are urgently seeking a safe way for us to meet in London. I have taken part in the virtual Parliament since last Tuesday and it is simply dreadful. I really want to fulfil my responsibilities as an elected representative in Westminster although I am trying to do that as well as I can from my substitute parliamentary office in our Shortlands house.
The Daily Telegraph, reports that Government ministers have been advised by scientific experts that the lockdown could start to be lifted by the middle of May. Personally, I believe it will start before then although the fear of a second wave of Coronavirus infections, the last of the Government’s five conditions, will worry the Prime Minister hugely. But the Government has to make some pretty key decisions before Thursday 7 May. We cannot wait any longer than that.
However, whatever Coronavirus exit plans are made it is also crucial that they receive public backing. So far that support has held up but, as I have suggested earlier, there are signs of cracks in it. Going forward the public will also need to accept and agree any lockdown exit measures or they could simply be ignored en masse.
Although not confirmed it has been suggested that the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) has itself devised a lockdown exit plan which is on the table awaiting the return to work of Boris Johnson. That should happen this week if my spies are right. Personally, I believe the full return of Boris cannot happen too soon and it will give a huge fillip both to national leadership and morale as well as getting Coronavirus recovery plans sorted.